TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ALERT STATEMENT #1

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT  STATEMENT  

WHCA31 TAPA  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ALERT STATEMENT  

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES  

12:08 PM ECT TUE, SEP 5, 2023  

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL  TROPICAL ATLANTIC  

FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF  THE WEEK…  

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS NOW  FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN,  LOCATED 1422 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1694  EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  

THE FORECAST TRACK STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNRELIABLE DUE TO ITS  FAR DISTANCE FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF MODEL  FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRE WILL LIKELY PASS  TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AT WHICH TIME IT IS FORECAST TO BE A 

MAJOR HURRICANE. HENCE, AT THIS EARLY STAGE, TROPICAL  DEPRESSION THIRTEEN POSES LITTLE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS.  NOTWITHSTANDING, IT’S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT IS  SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEMS MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION  AND NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35  MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL  PRESSURE IS 1008 MB  

BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT  THE NEAREST POINT TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A  MAJOR HURRICANE. MOST OF THE HAZARDOUS WINDS COULD STAY  CLEAR OF THE ISLANDS BUT IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS CANNOT BE RULED  OUT. THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME. PLEASE NOTE THAT NO  WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.  

TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND HAVING YOUR  HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND READY. ADDITIONALLY,  PLEASE STAY ACTIVELY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF  TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CLOSELY.  

AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON  FORECASTER  

LETITIA HUMPHREYS 

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